Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner / Nov 14, 2019

Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction A New York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book of The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking Fast and Slow Jason Zweig The Wall Street Journal Everyone would

  • Title: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
  • Author: Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner
  • ISBN: 9780804136709
  • Page: 450
  • Format: ebook
  • A New York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book of 2015 The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week s meals Unfortunately, peopleA New York Times BestsellerAn Economist Best Book of 2015 The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week s meals Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer who set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets They ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Laden s compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn t require powerful computers or arcane methods It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life and is destined to become a modern classic.From the Hardcover edition.

    Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Buy Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Unabridged by Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Joel Richards ISBN from s Book Store Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. Barel Karsan Value Investing Superforecasting Forecasts are everywhere But surprisingly, few ask and receive the track record of the forecasters As a result, we end up consuming a lot of bad forecasts, as we end up hearing from those who are better at entertaining than they are at forecasting. Balance Legal Capital litigation funding and strategic Litigation Superforecasting, Part put a number on it This is the first of a three part series in which Robert Rothkopf extracts important lessons for litigators and consumers of legal advice from the recent book Superforecasting The Art Science of Prediction. Report Related links Report, credit report, research, stock report. How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future Ep Here s where you can learn about the people and ideas behind this episode PEOPLE Philip E Tetlock, professor of management and psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, author of Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Jonathan Bales, co founder of Fantasy Labs and author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series Research UK Investment Fund Phoenix Asset Management Reading is an essential part of our research process at Phoenix Here, we share some of the books we have found useful We update our reading room regularly, so come back to see new additions. The Art of the Long View Planning for the Fulfillment by FBA is a service we offer sellers that lets them store their products in s fulfillment centers, and we directly pack, ship, and provide customer service for these products. All Conversations Edge Printed On Sun March th STAT Book List University of California, Berkeley Reviews of non technical books relating to Probability These reviews were originally created for my course Probability and the Real World but may be of wider interest Suggestions for Spring Exam Book List SOA Corporate Finance and ERM Strategic Decision Making ISBN The xVA Challenge, Gregory, J.Third Edition, , John Wiley Sons

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      • Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner

        Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner Is a well-known author, some of his books are a fascination for readers like in the Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction book, this is one of the most wanted Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner author readers around the world.


    865 Comments

    1. During the first hundred pages, I was sure to give the book a perfect score. It totally caught my attention and made me want more and more. The book made me feel like it had been written for me, someone that don't know much about predictions and forecasts, but feels like he could be good at it.Then, after the half of the book, you get a little bored because it always come back to the same thing: Use number to make your predictions in a well established timeframe, always question your predictions [...]


    2. 5⭐️ - What a great book! It will definitely appeal to the fans of Thinking, Fast and Slow, Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions and The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.Thought-provoking and full of very perceptive observations. But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written. This is an example of non-fiction at its best. There is definitely research and background science overview but each chapter is a proper s [...]


    3. When it comes to forecasting, most pundits and professionals do little better than chimps with dartboards, according to Phillip Tetlock, who ought to know because he has spent a good deal of his life keeping track. Tetlock has partnered with Dan Gardner, an excellent science journalist, to write this engaging book about the 2 percent of forecasters who manage to consistently outperform their peers. Oddly, consumers of forecasts generally do not require evidence of accuracy. Few television networ [...]


    4. Philip E. Tetlock feels a bit too polite. Sometimes it seems he is excusing wrong predictions by finding weasel words in them or interpreting them kindly instead of using the intended assertion.Just say, Thomas Friedman is a bad forecaster.Instead of reading this book I recommend reading the books he references:Thinking, Fast and Slow The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable and The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don'tThis books feels like a (superficial [...]


    5. Harry Truman famously said: Give me a one-handed economist! All my economics say, ''On the one hand? on the other.''Philip Tetlock combines three major findings from different areas of research:1) People don't like experts who are context specific and could not provide us with clear simple answers regarding complex phenomena in a probabilistic world. People don't like if an expert sounds not 100% confident. They reason, that confidence represents skills.2) Experts who employ publicly acceptable [...]


    6. This book was solid, though perhaps not quite as good as I hoped/expected. It was interesting reading, full of interesting stories and examples. The author doesn't prescribe a particular method - superforecasting, it appears, is more about a toolbox or set of guidelines that must be used and adapted based on the particular circumstances. At a result, at times I felt the author's thread was being lost or scattered; however, upon reflection I realized it was part of the nature of making prediction [...]


    7. Me surpreendeu positivamente. Tinha comprado este livro em 2015 e nem lembrava o que me motivou. Não me arrependi. O livro começa com a explicação de como e porque a maioria dos especialistas em previsão política e similares geralmente estão errados. Muitas vezes, mais errados do que tentativas aleatórias de prever o futuro (o anedótico chimpanzé com um dardo). Philip E. Tetlock fez parte de um longo estudo chamado The Good Judgment Project, onde os participantes passaram anos fazendo [...]


    8. This book features some interesting trivia about "Super-forecasters" but when it comes to explaining evidence-based practice, it was Super-disappointing. It starts off well with a discussion of Archie Cochrane and evidence-based medicine (EBM), but then it bizarrely ignores the core concepts of EBM. -In EBM, you look up what works and then use that info to help people instead of killing them. But when Tetlock talks about social philanthropy he implies that it's evidence-based as long as you rigo [...]



    9. themaineedge/style/futEver since mankind has grasped the concept of time, we have been trying to predict the future. Whole cottage industries have sprung up around the process of prediction. Knowing what is coming next is a need that borders on the obsessive within our culture.But is it even possible to predict what has yet to happen?According to “Superforecasters: The Art and Science of Prediction”, the answer is yes…sort of. Social scientist Philip Tetlock and journalist Dan Gardner have [...]


    10. Possibly the best book I read in 2015. Couldn't have read at a better time as the year nears an end. I could relate with a lot of things as I work as an equity analyst trying to do the seemingly impossible thing of forecasting stock prices. In particular, the examples of how superforecasters go about doing their jobs were pretty inspiring. Examples of taking the outside view and creating a tree of various outcomes and breaking down that tree into branches are something I could benefit from. As a [...]


    11. Среди плотно заставленных полок в разделе “Smart Thinking” как-то мне на глаза попалась книга “Superforecasting”. Интригующая тема, подумал я, много упоминаний в элитной прессе – нужно читать! Если кратко, то эта книга о том, насколько хорошо люди могут предсказывать результаты важных [...]


    12. The point Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner are trying to make is that in the field of forecasting we seldom measure the accuracy of a prediction retrospectively, it applies especially to talking heads giving vague opinions often with no timeframes in media about the trends in the stock market, crisis in Syria, results of next elections etc. The unfortunate thing is that the same happens or happened previously in the national intelligence services as well. No scores were kept on the accuracy levels [...]


    13. Summarizing 20 years of research on forecasting accuracy conducted from 1984 through 2004, Philip Tetlock concluded “the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” More worrisome is the inverse correlation between fame and accuracy—the more famous a forecasting expert was, the less accurate he was. This book describes what was learned as Tetlock set out to improve forecasting accuracy with the Good Judgement Project.Largely in response to colossal US intelligenc [...]


    14. Superforcasting: The Art of Science and Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock, is a book about the art and science of statistical prediction, and its everyday uses. Except it isn't really, that is just what they are selling it as. The book starts off really strong, analyzing skepticism, illusions of statistical knowledge, and various types of bias. However, the majority of the book focuses on a US government intelligence project called IARPA, designed to use everyday citizens to make statistical pred [...]


    15. Social scientist Philip Tetlock talks about his multi-year experiment to measure and identify ways to improve our forecasts. A lot of his findings appear to be common sense, i.e. many forecasts are very nebulous and difficult to disprove and so we can't really tell if we are improving, big problems can be forecast by breaking them into more manageable pieces (Fermi-izing in his terminology), our judgement is affected by various biases, etc. The contribution is that Tetlock has brought these idea [...]


    16. This is really a book on epistemology: How do you manage uncertainty in a world with tons of it? How can we update our beliefs while taking into account the usefulness of new evidence? In the forecasting arena these questions and their answers are key to producing accurate predictions. I would recommend this book to anyone interested in the art of Bayesian epistemology and probabilistic thinking, and doubly so if one has a predilection for prediction.


    17. Un libro interesante acerca de cómo realizar pronósticos. Uno de los puntos principales para saber cómo se comportará un fenómeno en el futuro depende en gran medida de la información con la que contamos y los posibles escenarios que podrían suceder. Aunque siempre existen sucesos inesperados el conocimiento de las situaciones disminuyen la incertidumbre.


    18. TL;DR: a more practical companion to Expert Political Judgment, useful for forecasts in politics, economics, and other areas of human activity, if not quite as compelling as its predecessor. 3 1/2 stars.Superforecasting is a book that presents the results of Philip Tetlock's research on prediction and avoiding the biases that afflict even experts' forecasts within their domain of expertise. The book is something of a sequel to Expert Political Judgment​, which shows that, on average, the polit [...]


    19. A great read, probably the best light read this summer. A book I would recommend to whole-heartedly to anyone, since we are all forecasters. Usually, I am not a fan of the Predictably Irrational/Freakonomics model of turning an academic paper into a full length book but exceptions must be made. Tetlock was famous for producing the chimp throwing darts study (interestingly, fame was inversely proportional to accuracy, and there's many examples of pundits who project forward a vague forecast and t [...]


    20. I received an ARC in exchange for an honest review through First Reads. Thank you, Random House of Canada!!Old joke about American Intelligence and oxymorons aside, Mr Tetlock draws heavy inspiration from American politics in the latest book detailing his life's research. This is the person behind the quip about American forecasters being worse than "chimps with darts", a line he's sick of hearing but that's not inaccurate.This book was about half guilty pleasure for nerds *raises hand* and hal [...]


    21. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a wonderful read on a fascinating subject which we all do to some degree every single day of our lives - forecasting. Tetlock and Gardner paint the picture of why we struggle at predicting uncertain things and illustrate several ways we can improve our abilities to improve in this area. I work in basketball and one of the core elements is forecasting how players may perform in a different offensive system, defensive system, with different te [...]


    22. A Christmas gift from my daughters with a note that said, “Now you can predict the lottery numbers.” No pressure.This book is not that type of book, but it is still worth the read to those of us who feel the need to quantify everything. The book documents the inaccuracy of TV pundits and, through a website in which anyone can make quantifiable forecasts, tracks the accuracy of forecasters on key economic and world issues. Through a scoring system, the super forecasters are identified and stu [...]


    23. I was one-hundred percent, absolutely blown away by this book. I think it is because it contained so many truths that I, a a project-based learning facilitator in a public high school, preach to my students. Students have to be able to accurately forecast whether their project will be successful and make changes if it won't be. How do they do that? They need to know what is known and unknown. They also need grit, determination, and a growth mindset. They also need to be able to work together wit [...]


    24. An excellent book on how to think clearly. The short-short version of the forecasting formula set forth by author Philip Tetlock is "use probabilities and check your ego." The book elaborates on this, and will teach you how to use probabilities and when and how to check your ego. Perhaps more importantly, it will help you spot others' errors and see through their bs. The book also highlights that much of the "forecasts" by professional and amateur pundits are no sincere attempts to accurately pr [...]


    25. I didn't know much about forecasting before reading this book, and found the explanations easy to follow. The ease with which the superforecasters' predictions were explained, however, took some of the magic out of the ability to consistently beat others' forecasts. Yet tips not to over- or under-predict simultaneously make the superforecasters' feats seem even more out of reach. This book will appeal to readers who enjoyed Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise.


    26. Jag kan varmt rekommendera denna bok för alla som någon gång har försökt att förutsäga någonting om framtiden och vill bli bättre på att göra det.Goda tankar kring mål och mätning för den typen av arbete. Många nya och återupptäckta idéer för framtida äventyr :)


    27. It was mildly interesting. I wouldn't really recommend if you have taken stats and know basic ideas behind thinking fast and slow.



    28. Yup. This one is good. It turns out that making good forecasts is really hard and we haven't been getting much better at it (see Sherden's 1998 book _The Fortune Sellers_ for an earlier take). Tetlock -- the political scientist who brought the idea of foxes and hedgehogs into the mainstream -- has run a long-term prediction project. With government funding, he and his collaborators asked people to make a series of predictions with binary outcomes. Specifically, he asked for a probability. Partic [...]


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